Based our last report, EU market was stable in October. Pork price declines slightly in November.Carcass price decreases 3.3% compared to last month and increases 1.5% compared to last year. Piglet price declines 4.8% compared to last month and 2% compared to last year. Spanish piglets and carcass price both decline in November. Germany pork price is stable, as well as French pork price is recovered stably. Belgian pork price exported to China is still firm and no big change. Britain pig price is ￡148/kg and declines 3.4% compared to last month. European piglet price declines €5.5 to €42.12/head in the 48thweek, down €2.46 compared to last year. 30 kg pig price increases ￡35 to ￡56.07/head, up ￡3 compared to year-on-year. 7kg pig price increases ￡14 to ￡41.25/head. German piglet price declines €16.3 to ￡46/head. The Netherland pig price declines ￡12.75 to ￡28.5/head.
Pork demand recently has increased because Christmas is coming. Under higher demand context, carcass weight declines. The 48th week in November carcass weight declines 630g to 83.65kg. The UK carcass weight is 83.65kg down 0.63kg in the 48th week in November. According to our sources in EU, many plants keep busy these weeks.The total slaughter volume in EU this month is 3562 thsd tons. The 45th week slaughter volume is 173.6 thsd tons and the 48th week slaughter volume is 188.5 thsd tons. A source said, French plant cut 2056 thsd tons. The United Kingdom slaughters 180 thsd tons per week. “EU carcass and piglet prices declined in November.” The pork production cost of UK declines because of sterling devaluation after Brexit vote in June 2016. UK pork production cost declines 5% to ￡126/kg compared to last year. EU pork production cost increases 8% to ￡127/kg compared to last year, which reaches the peak of pork production cost since 2009.
EU pork exported to South Korea declines 36% (-6800 tons) which is the main reason of EU pork export decline. While US imported EU pork increases 55% (+3200 tons) to 9.1 thsd tons. EU pork exported to the Philippines and Taiwan of China increases 28% (+1500 tons) and 27% (+700 tons) respectively. EU pork offal exported to China takes 50% of total offal export. Weaker demand in China is the reason that EU pork offal declines. However, Japan and South Korea imported EU pork offal increases 50% (+1500 tons) and 39% (+1100 tons) respectively.
According to AHDB, UK pork production will increase to 9249 thsd tons in 2018 because of increased profit of farmer and improved rate of sow breed. UK pork exported to China and other regions will rise based on pork demand in the local markets. EU pork export will decline 2% to 2492 thsd tons in 2018 according to a report of EU commission. EU live pork export will be 9000 tons increased 5% compared to 2017. Per capita consumption of pork will increase 0.1 % to 31.5kg.